This cigarette butt estimator tool makes it easy to calculate how many cigarette butts are discarded in a community per year. For more information on this calculator’s limitations, see the Limitations section.
Enter values in each box below. If you are unsure of what to enter, click the
i How can I find this? icon next to each box. Click Calculate to estimate the number of cigarette butts discarded per year.
Number of adults in the community.
Use a search engine to find the number of adults in your chosen location. Government websites with census data are typically reliable sources. If you are in the United States, you can use the Census Quick Facts website. Once you enter the name of a city, it gives you (A) the total population and (B) the population <18. Subtract B from A, and you get the # of adults.
% adult smokers in the community.
Use a search engine to find the percentage of adults in your chosen location who smoke. If you are in the United States, you can use the CDC Places Interactive Map, click the Health Risk Behaviors tab, and choose “Current Smoking”.
Average number of cigarettes smoked per day.
This information is not consistently reported and varies between communities and between individuals who smoke. Consider that a pack contains 20 cigarettes and that some people smoke one pack per day or more. In California, the number of cigarettes smoked per day is estimated to be 5 to 10.
% cigarette butts littered
Enter the share of butts you think end up as litter rather than in bins. The discard rate can vary from community to community, with the best estimates ranging from approximately 40% to 70%.
Estimated adult smokers
—
Adults × % smokers
Discarded butts per year
—
Smokers × cigs/day × % discarded × 365
How much is that?
- End to end, this many cigarette butts would stretch about — km (— miles).
- Over 24 hours, this many butts can release an estimated — to — kg (— to — lb) of nicotine in water.
- Considering the upper limit of the lethal dose of nicotine for a child weighing 10kg is 140 mg, the amount of nicotine released by this many cigarette butts is equivalent to — lethal doses.
- Considering that each cigarette filter contains, on average, 0.12 grams of microplastics, the total amount of microplastics that can be released by this many cigarette butts is — kg (— lb).
Assumptions: 1 butt ≈ 1 inch (2.54 cm). Nicotine released per butt in 24 hours: 1.2 mg. Lethal dose for a 10 kg child: 10–140 mg.
Limitations
1) The calculator asks for the number of adult residents and the smoking rate among adults in a community. Therefore, estimates are limited to the number of cigarette butts littered by adults who smoke. This excludes visitors to a community as well as residents younger than 18 years who may smoke tobacco.
2) The calculator should not be used to determine a single estimate. We recommend using lower and upper values of a credible range of smoking prevalence, daily smoking rate, and litter rate so that the calculator gives a range of littered cigarette butts. For instance, instead of using a smoking prevalence of 12.6%, enter 10% and 15%. Instead of using a daily smoking rate of 9 cigarettes, obtain estimates for 5 and 10 cigarettes. Instead of a litter rate of 50%, obtain estimates for 40% and 60%.
3) This calculator is based on estimates (e.g., smoking prevalence) and assumptions (e.g., litter rate). The calculated values can only be as good as the estimates and assumptions.
References
Crosby, L. M. (2024). Unravelling the Risk of Poisoning From Nicotine-Containing Tobacco Products in Children Less Than Five Years of Age. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 27(3), 378-386. https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntae044
Matt, G. E., Greiner, L., Tran, K., Gibbons, J., Vingiello, M., Stigler Granados, P., Shadbegian, R., & Novotny, T. E. (2025). Estimating the accumulation and re-accumulation of commercial tobacco, electronic cigarette, and cannabis waste based on a stratified random sample of census blocks. PLoS One, 20(1), e0313241. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313241
Novotny, T. E., Bialous, S. A., Hill, K., Hamzai, L., Beutel, M., Hoh, E., Mock, J., & Matt, G. E. (2022). Tobacco Product Waste in California: A White Paper. https://merg.sdsu.edu/tpwwp/
Roder Green, A. L., Putschew, A., & Nehls, T. (2014). Littered cigarette butts as a source of nicotine in urban waters. Journal of Hydrology, 519, 3466-3474. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.046
Soltani, M., Shahsavani, A., Hopke, P.K. et al. Investigating the inflammatory effect of microplastics in cigarette butts on peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Sci Rep 15, 458 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/