This calculator tool estimates how many cigarette butts are discarded in a community per year based on:
(A) the number of adults in the community,
(B) the percentage of adults who smoke,
(C) the average number of cigarettes they smoke per day, and
(D) the percentage of butts they discard in the environment.
In Step 1, you determine (A) the number of adults in a community of interest and (B) the percentage of adults who smoke.
You can find this information using the CDC Places tool (link below under Step 1) or your preferred search engine.
In Step 2, you enter (A) the number of adults and (B) their smoking rate in their respective boxes below under Step 2.
In Step 3, you enter (C) the average number of cigarettes they smoke per day, and (D) the percentage of butts they litter in the environment in their respective boxes below under Step 3.
Unfortunately, this information is not consistently reported and varies between communities and between individuals who are more or less addicted to nicotine. Consider that a pack contains 20 cigarettes and that a heavily addicted person may smoke one pack per day or more. In California, the average daily smoking rate among people who smoke tobacco is believed to be between 5 and 10 cigarettes per day. The discard rate can also vary from community to community, with the best estimates ranging from approximately 40% to 70%.
In Step 4, click on the Calculate button to obtain the estimated number of smokers and the estimated number of butts they discard every year. Repeat Steps 2 to 4 to determine the impact of different smoking rates, daily consumption, and discard percentages.
Step 5 allows you to consider various scenarios related to smoking and littering. This step is optional, but can be very informative. Simply click on the different preset average smoking rate per day (e.g., 5, 10, 15, or 20) and preset discard percentages (e.g., 40%, 50%, 60%, or 70%), and the calculator will immediately determine the discarded butts per year for each scenario.
Step 1: Determine the Adult Population and Percentage Who Smoke
- Use the CDC PLACES website to find your city, the number of adults (A), and the % of adults who smoke (B).
- Or use a search engine (e.g. Google, DuckDuckGo) to determine the number of adults (A) and % who smoke in your community (B).
Once you have these figures, enter them in Steps 2–3 below.
Limitations
1) The calculator asks for the number of adult residents and the smoking rate among adults in a community. Therefore, estimates are limited to the number of cigarette butts littered by adults who smoke. This excludes visitors to a community as well as residents younger than 18 years who may smoke tobacco.
2) The calculator should not be used to determine a single estimate. We recommend using lower and upper values of a credible range of smoking prevalence, daily smoking rate, and litter rate so that the calculator gives a range of littered cigarette butts. For instance, instead of using a smoking prevalence of 12.6%, enter 10% and 15%. Instead of using a daily smoking rate of 9 cigarettes, obtain estimates for 5 and 10 cigarettes. Instead of a litter rate of 50%, obtain estimates for 40% and 60%.
3) This calculator is based on estimates (e.g., smoking prevalence) and assumptions (e.g., litter rate). The calculated values can only be as good as the estimates and assumptions.
References
Crosby, L. M. (2024). Unravelling the Risk of Poisoning From Nicotine-Containing Tobacco Products in Children Less Than Five Years of Age. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 27(3), 378-386. https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntae044
Matt, G. E., Greiner, L., Tran, K., Gibbons, J., Vingiello, M., Stigler Granados, P., Shadbegian, R., & Novotny, T. E. (2025). Estimating the accumulation and re-accumulation of commercial tobacco, electronic cigarette, and cannabis waste based on a stratified random sample of census blocks. PLoS One, 20(1), e0313241. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313241
Novotny, T. E., Bialous, S. A., Hill, K., Hamzai, L., Beutel, M., Hoh, E., Mock, J., & Matt, G. E. (2022). Tobacco Product Waste in California: A White Paper. https://merg.sdsu.edu/tpwwp/
Roder Green, A. L., Putschew, A., & Nehls, T. (2014). Littered cigarette butts as a source of nicotine in urban waters. Journal of Hydrology, 519, 3466-3474. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.046